Nearly $2 billion in previously locked tokens is scheduled to hit the market between July 1 and August 1 — and the dollar figure alone doesn't tell you where the real risk sits. One token unlocking a fifth of its entire released supply in a single event is a bigger deal than a token unlocking nine figures worth that barely moves its float. Here's the calendar, and which numbers actually matter.
Two kinds of unlock, and why the difference matters
Before the numbers: unlocks come in two shapes. A cliff unlock releases a large batch all at once on a fixed date — a sudden jolt of new supply. A linear unlock releases smaller amounts continuously, spread across the month, giving the market more time to absorb it. A cliff and a linear unlock of the same dollar size are not equally risky; the cliff is the one that can actually move a price chart in a single session.
The other number that matters more than the raw dollar figure is the unlock's size relative to the token's own circulating or released supply. A $900 million unlock sounds enormous — and it is — but if it represents under 1% of a token's float, deep liquidity can often absorb it without much drama. A $10 million unlock representing 20% of a thinly-traded token's supply is the one actually worth worrying about.
The cliff unlocks: sudden, single-day events
| Token | Unlock value | % of released supply |
|---|---|---|
| PUMP | $124.32M | 20.21% |
| H | $21.65M | 8.60% |
| KAITO | $10.08M | 4.30% |
| ZRO | $21.25M | 4.60% |
| ENA | $15.47M | 2.51% |
| CONX | $15.70M | 1.45% |
| HYPE | $29.41M | 0.11% |
PUMP stands out immediately: its cliff unlock represents just over a fifth of its entire adjusted released supply landing in a single event — by far the largest percentage in this group, and the kind of ratio that genuinely warrants caution regardless of the token's current trading conditions. H's unlock, at 8.60%, is a meaningful chunk on its own, and the timing is worth flagging specifically: it's landing while the token is still working through a deep drawdown following a prior security incident — a supply increase is rarely welcome news for a token already under pressure for unrelated reasons. HYPE's cliff, by contrast, is essentially a non-event in percentage terms — 0.11% of released supply is unlikely to register as meaningful selling pressure no matter how large the headline dollar figure looks.
The linear unlocks: smaller shocks, bigger totals
| Token | Unlock value | % of circulating supply |
|---|---|---|
| RAIN | $896.53M | 9.80% |
| LAB | $336.01M | 8.63% |
| TRUMP | $47.93M | 11.81% |
| SOL | $150.54M | 0.35% |
| CC | $123.25M | 2.18% |
| WLD | $57.82M | 4.04% |
| MORPHO | $22.24M | 1.79% |
| ASTER | $28.63M | 1.70% |
| JTO | $14.63M | 3.81% |
| TAO | $22.42M | 1.16% |
| AVAX | $20.65M | 0.72% |
| NEAR | $10.14M | 0.43% |
| ZEC | $19.74M | 0.29% |
RAIN alone accounts for nearly half of the entire month's $1.988 billion total, releasing close to $900 million worth of tokens — the single largest unlock value tracked this month, at 9.80% of circulating supply. LAB isn't far behind at $336 million and 8.63% of its own float. But TRUMP is the one with the highest percentage figure in the linear group at 11.81%, which is the number that actually determines selling-pressure risk more than RAIN's larger headline dollar figure does. SOL is a good example of the opposite pattern: $150 million sounds significant, but at just 0.35% of circulating supply, it's a rounding error for a token with SOL's trading depth.
Why an unlock doesn't automatically mean a price drop
Two things determine whether a given unlock actually shows up as selling pressure. First, who's receiving the tokens: team and early investor allocations tend to see meaningfully more selling than community or ecosystem-fund unlocks, since early backers are often sitting on large unrealized gains and looking to realize some of them. Second, liquidity: a token with deep trading volume can generally absorb a large unlock without much price disruption, while a thinly traded token can see an outsized move even from a comparatively small release. The percentage-of-supply numbers above are the best publicly available proxy for risk, but they're a starting point for your own research, not a guarantee of what happens next.
What I'd actually watch
If I only had time to track a handful of these, I'd prioritize PUMP and TRUMP specifically — not because their dollar totals are the largest, but because their unlock-to-supply ratios are, which is the number that has historically correlated more closely with actual price impact than raw dollar value does. I'd watch H a bit more cautiously than the percentage alone suggests, given it's unlocking into an already-weakened token rather than a stable one. And I'd treat RAIN and LAB's headline-grabbing dollar figures with some perspective — genuinely large in absolute terms, but worth checking each project's own liquidity and holder composition before assuming the percentage-of-supply number alone tells the full story.
This piece is informational, not financial or investment advice. Token unlock data is sourced from third-party trackers and is subject to change — verify current figures directly before making any decision. I hold no undisclosed positions in the tokens mentioned beyond what I've stated elsewhere on this site. Do your own research and size any position around what you can actually afford to be wrong about.